In April 2025, United States and Iran held their first indirect talks under the second Trump administration on a potential new agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear programme. These talks, brokered by Oman, considered the highest level of engagement since US withdrew from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. The Trump administration had previously described the JCPOA as “enriching Iran” while only delaying its ability to pursue nuclear weapons, and accordingly reimposed a broad range of sanctions. In response, Iran incrementally breached JCPOA commitments from 2019 onwards and, by 2020, lifted all restrictions on its nuclear programme while declaring that its development would proceed based solely on “technical needs.”
Expansion of Iran’s Nuclear Activities
Iran’s nuclear activities have since expanded significantly. These include raising enrichment levels to 60%, far beyond the JCPOA’s 3.67% limit, and accumulating a stockpile of enriched uranium now estimated at over 8,000 kg. In 2023, IAEA discovered uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, which, although later explained by Iran, raised international concerns. As of early 2025, the IAEA and E3 (France, Germany, and UK) estimate that Iran possesses enough highly enriched uranium to potentially produce up to six nuclear explosive devices if further enriched to 90%. However, due to reduced transparency and unresolved safeguard issues, the IAEA has stated that it is unable to verify whether Iran’s programme remains exclusively peaceful. As per intelligence assessments, US Director of National Intelligence assessed in 2025 that Iran is not actively building a nuclear weapon and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not reauthorized the weapons programme suspended in 2003. Nonetheless, US intelligence noted that Iran now has the infrastructure and technical capability to rapidly produce weapons-grade material if it chooses. Parallel reports indicate growing domestic debate within Iran on whether to pursue a nuclear weapon, especially following the weakening of regional allies such as Hezbollah and Hamas between 2023 and 2025.
Rome Talks: Fifth Round of Negotiations
The fifth round of indirect nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded on May 23, 2025, in Rome at the Omani embassy, with limited but notable progress. Mediator Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi, Oman’s Foreign Minister, stated that while the talks showed “some, but not conclusive, progress,” further clarification of outstanding issues is expected in the coming days. The discussions were led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. Araghchi described the meeting as “one of the most professional rounds of negotiations” so far and emphasized that proposals from both sides would be reviewed in their respective capitals ahead of the next round.
The core sticking point remains Iran’s uranium enrichment programme. US has demanded that Iran halt all enrichment activities while proposing a three-year freeze during which Iran would rely on imported fuel, likely from Russia. Tehran has rejected this stance, arguing that enrichment for peaceful purposes is its right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei dismissed the demand as “excessive and outrageous,” while Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s position that, although it supports a deal ensuring “zero nuclear weapons,” it will not accept any agreement based on “zero enrichment.” Iran has proposed returning to the JCPOA’s 3.67% threshold and floated the idea of selling enriched uranium to the US, but no agreement has been reached on stockpile disposal or future enrichment limits.
In addition to enrichment, the US raised issue of Iran’s ballistic missile programme. Tehran rejected its inclusion in the talks and insisted that it lies outside the scope of nuclear negotiations. The discussions remained calm and constructive despite US envoy Witkoff leaving early due to travel constraints. However, tensions were inflamed by Washington’s announcement of new sanctions targeting Iran’s construction sector. Tehran condemned these measures as “vicious, illegal, and inhumane,” warning that continued economic pressure could undermine diplomatic momentum. Both sides remain deeply mistrustful. Iran demands “ironclad guarantees” that the US will not withdraw from any future agreement, as it did in 2018. It also insists on the lifting of all sanctions, including the delisting of the IRGC from the US terror list. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues its “maximum pressure” strategy and asserted that Iran’s nuclear ambitions must be curtailed to prevent a potential arms race in the region.
International Responses and Diplomatic Stakes
International reactions to the renewed negotiations have varied. The UK, Germany, and France have declared that Iran must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and reiterated their readiness to trigger the JCPOA snapback mechanism before its expiry in October 2025, should talks fail. The EU, although sidelined from the current bilateral process, has emphasized the importance of coordinated Western diplomacy. Arab Gulf states, previously skeptical of Iran’s intentions, now support a negotiated settlement for regional stability and economic development. In contrast, Israel remains staunchly opposed to any agreement that allows Iran to retain enrichment capabilities. Citing Tehran’s missile activities and support for regional proxies, the Netanyahu government has warned of potential military strikes. Iran has responded by cautioning that any attack on its nuclear facilities would implicate the United States and vowed strong retaliation. Araghchi warned that diplomacy must not be derailed by coercion, stating: “If they could have damaged Iran’s facilities, they would have done it long ago.”
Additionally, Russia and China have defended Iran’s right to a civilian nuclear programme, criticized Western sanctions, and called for continued adherence to the JCPOA framework. Moscow has offered to store Iran’s enriched uranium and mediate negotiations, while Beijing has advocated against triggering the snapback mechanism and emphasized peaceful nuclear development. Lastly, the path to a renewed agreement remains uncertain. Although the fifth round concluded with cautious optimism, the underlying issues of mutual distrust, regional instability, and hardline positions on both sides continue to threaten progress. With the expiration of UN sanctions and the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism looming in October 2025, the next steps in diplomacy will be decisive.
